MLB: Playing Against teams on last road game
Going through various forums a while back, I noticed someone had mentioned road teams playing the last game of a road trip were losing at a steady rate.
2008-06-25
Going through various forums a while back, I noticed someone had mentioned road teams playing the last game of a road trip were losing at a steady rate. I decided to make a note of this and do the research to back up this individual’s claim. Take a look at what I found then wager on it as Sportsbook.com
In theory, the basic point would be road teams might be anxious to get home after a road trip and might not play their best in final encounter, much to the dismay of starting pitcher. If that assumption is somewhat accurate, certain parameters had to established, to determine what a road trip actually is.
A three-game series in another city would hardly be taxing for any MLB club, thus those short jaunts are not included. The major league schedule-maker had a number of teams playing two games in two cities back-to-back, thou somewhat more strenuous, not overbearing. The final conclusion was every team had to visit two different towns, with a minimum of five games played as an out-of-towner.
The person making the assessment was right on the nose, leading one to wonder how much cash this person is bring in following this simple procedure. Betting Against road teams in the final game of a road trip has produced a 90-52 record, 64.4 winning percentage and yielded +31.15 units of profit in 2008. Pretty amazing numbers that even the President of Sprint would have to agree. (Using language from his TV commercial)
Not unexpectedly, underdogs account for 73.2 percent of all games played (104), since these are the road teams and would be +120 to +125 in most even pitching matchups. In this scenario, dogs have only won 39 times and lost -14.1 units. Favorites have done even worse in 38 contests played, chalking up only 13 victories and losing -17.25 units. Depending on how a series has played out, the home underdog could also have the additional incentive of attempting to win the series, while the visiting team’s players are unfocused thinking about sleeping in own bed and being in more familiar surroundings. Three teams in particular were exposed as real losers in getaway games.
L.A. Dodgers 1-5 -3.40 units
St. Louis 0-4 -4.05 units
Baltimore 0-5 -5.00 units
While most clubs were not as bad as these three, most had losing records or were around .500. A couple of teams have actually had success to close road trips and went home happy more often than not. Arizona is 3-1 (+2.80 units) before heading back to the desert heat and Toronto returned back to Canada with a smile, posting 4-1 mark, amassing +3.10 units.
With a number of road trips concluding this upcoming Sunday, be prepared to take advantage of this superior method of making money on betting baseball this weekend and hopefully the rest of the season.
Latest MLB News
Click here to read latest MLB news