MLB – LA Angels at NY Yankees (7:05 PM ET – YES)
baseball betting closes out the unofficial first-half of the season this weekend and one of the key series
2007-07-06
baseball betting closes out the unofficial first-half of the season this weekend and one of the key series’ in the American League will be played in the Bronx, with the Yankees hosting the Angels for three games. New York is two games under .500 heading into Friday’s contest and would love the opportunity to sweep struggling Los Angeles and head into the All-Star break at 43-42 with some momentum. The hosts are a –145 favorite with veteran Andy Pettitte toeing the rubber.
Pettitte is also two games under .500 at 4-6 this season with a WHIP of 1.398. The Yankees have lost his last three starts and he carries an atrocious 8.80 ERA with a 2.151 WHIP during that stretch. In his last outing versus Oakland on Sunday, he allowed eight runs and nine hits in less than two innings of work. Against the Angels, he is 7-5 lifetime.
Bartolo Colon takes the mound for the Angels, He boasts a 6-4 record this season with a much less enviable 5.68 ERA and 1.545 WHIP. He too has struggled of late, carrying a 1.944 WHIP in his last three starts. Against the Yankees, he is 5-6 all time.
With both pitchers struggling and both offenses ranked in the top 4 in batting average, it’s not a stretch to think that there could be a lot of runs scored in this one. The total is set at 10 UNDER and both pitchers trend out nicely on an OVER play:
* COLON is 17-4 OVER (+13.1 Units) in road games when playing on Friday since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was COLON 6.8, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
* PETTITTE is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was PETTITTE 5.5, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
In terms of any plays on the –145 line, the Yankees are the beneficiaries of the same StatFox Super Situation that Texas was yesterday against Los Angeles. Play Against - Road teams (LA ANGELS) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. (170-86 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +68.8 units. Rating = 3*).
However, any and all trends would seem to indicate that Los Angeles has some value as the underdog. This shouldn’t be a surprise considering the Yankees are easily the league’s worst Money Line Unit team. Here’s a couple of eye-catching trends siding with the Halos:
* LA ANGELS are 17-6 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
* PETTITTE is 3-12 (-11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was PETTITTE 3.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
Add to these angles the fact that Los Angeles is 18-10 over the last three years versus the Yankees, including 9-6 at the “House that Ruth Built”, and you have all the makings of potential underdog play.
Find out more on this game, and the rest of the day’s baseball betting board by clicking on the Live Odds and Team Statistics pages.
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