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MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/30-8/1
2010-07-30

Another month is almost in the books in the 2010 Major League Baseball season, as teams will wrap up July and welcome in August this weekend. More importantly, the trade deadline is Saturday and there has already been a flurry of activity over the last few days. Expect more to come. That activity however, can make life difficult for bettors, since pitching matchups are changing, lineups are being adjusted, and relatively few series go unaffected. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what’s on tap for the next three days’ action and reveal this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering.

One of the biggest moves in anticipation of the trade deadline occurred yesterday when the Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt from the Astros. Oswalt will get his first start for Philadelphia on Friday when he goes at Washington. The Phillies are heating up and come into the series as winners of their last eight games. Their bats have finally gotten going, having produced 5.8 runs per game during that stretch. In addition, Philly has dominated Washington of late, going 31-11 overall and 15-6 in Washington over the last three seasons.

The National League’s biggest series is in Cincinnati though, where divisional leaders will square off. The Reds host the Braves for three games, with both teams holding on to slim leads. Atlanta leads Philadelphia by 2-1/2 games in the East but that lead is shrinking fast, as the Phillies are streaking and the Braves are not. They are just 5-7 in their last 12 games, and will try to improve this weekend on a road record of 24-30.

Elsewhere in the Senior Circuit, the rivalry between the Giants and Dodgers resumes in San Francisco, with the hosts heading upward in the standings and the visitors sliding down. The Giants are 17-5 since the 4th of July holiday, having taken over the wildcard lead 3-1/2 games behind San Diego in the NL West, but 3-1/2 games on top of sinking L.A. The Dodgers are just 9-12 in that time span but made a key move this week in acquiring Scott Posednik to plug the outfield gap while Manny Ramirez remains unable to play with a calf injury. Los Angeles is looking to repeat the 3-game sweep of the Giants they enjoyed in San Francisco in late June.

In the American League, the best two teams in baseball will get together for three games when the Yankees visit the Rays. Only two games separate these teams at the top of the A.L. East Division, with Tampa currently in tow. The Rays can easily make up that ground this weekend though, as you’ll see from the trends below that they have absolutely dominated good teams at home in the latter part of the last few seasons. Both teams are playing at the top of their games right now and three solid pitching matchups will make this a series to watch. Incidentally, all eight games between these teams in 2010 have gone OVER the total.

Finally, out West, it’s last gasp time for the Angels, as they host the division leading Rangers for three games. With the Rays comfortably in control of the Wildcard race right now, it’s division or bust for almost everyone else. In that sense, the fact that Angels trail the Rangers by 9-games heading into this series make this desperation time. The clubs have separated over the last two weeks, with Texas going 8-3 since July 18th and the Angels winning just two of 10 games in that span. Angels bats are partly to blame, with just 2.9 runs per game put up in that stretch. At this point, anything but a sweep will be a failure in Anaheim.

Now, here’s a look at those top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider for your weekend wagering.

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON

<li>PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)

ATLANTA at CINCINNATI

<li>ATLANTA is 19-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

ARIZONA at NY METS

<li>NY METS are 20-5 UNDER (+14.3 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 2.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)

MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON

<li>MILWAUKEE is 30-42 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS

<li>PITTSBURGH is 2-14 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.1, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 2*)

CHICAGO CUBS at COLORADO

<li>COLORADO is 126-69 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 since 1997. The average score was COLORADO 6.9, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

FLORIDA at SAN DIEGO

<li>SAN DIEGO is 23-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO

<li>LA DODGERS are 15-32 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TORONTO

<li>TORONTO is 14-2 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 6.1, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at BOSTON

<li>DETROIT is 16-33 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The average score was DETROIT 3.8, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)

NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY

<li>TAMPA BAY is 14-1 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.7, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY

<li>KANSAS CITY is 24-9 OVER (+14.7 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 6.0, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at CHI WHITE SOX

<li>CHI WHITE SOX are 17-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

SEATTLE at MINNESOTA

<li>SEATTLE is 4-21 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.5, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at LA ANGELS

<li>LA ANGELS are 77-61 (+17.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

MLB: Martinez returns for Phillies as road chalk
2009-08-12

It may not have the same fanfare as Tom Brady’s return at quarterback for the New England Patriots, but Wednesday night marks the return to the majors for one of the games most dominant pitchers of the early decade. Pedro Martinez takes to the mound for his newest team, the Phillies, and is greeted with a warm reception by oddsmakers, as they have made him a -110 road favorite in Chicago against the Cubs. Bettors aren’t exactly on the bandwagon yet though, as over 60% of them at Sportsbook.com are backing the hosts in early action.

The Phillies finally feel Martinez is ready to return to form. The 37-year-old right-hander makes his Philadelphia debut and his first appearance in almost a year Wednesday night at Wrigley Field.

The last time Martinez took the mound in the majors, he allowed five runs and struck out nine in six innings, but didn't receive a decision in a 7-6 win over the Cubs on Sept. 25, while with the New York Mets. After finishing 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA last season, the three-time Cy Young Award winner filed for free agency and went without a team until July 15, when the Phillies (62-48) signed him.

On the disabled list with a mild shoulder strain, Martinez will be activated Wednesday after going 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA in three minor league rehab starts. It would seem then that bettors are paying a lot more attention to his recent outings rather that his glorious past.

Philadelphia snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-3, 12-inning victory over Chicago on Tuesday. Chicago has now lost five of six.

In a move that reeks of desperation, the Cubs will send their own brand new starting pitcher to the hill to face Martinez, as after 42 career relief appearances, Jeff Samardzija (1-1, 6.29) will make his first start for Chicago in this contest.

The fact that Philadelphia is the favorite could be an important factor in this game, as to say the Cubbies have struggled in the underdog role this season would be a vast understatement:

* CHICAGO CUBS are 4-21 (-16.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.0, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 4*)

Meanwhile, the Phillies remain the league’s best road team, both in terms of winning percentage and units won for bettors at 33-19, +15.5 units.

In addition, manager Charlie Manuel’s team has breezed through the N.L. Central Division in its current run of success.

* PHILADELPHIA is 46-23 (+18.5 Units) against the money line against NL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

Game time is set for 8:05 PM ET from the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies Poised for Celebration
2008-10-27

Philadelphia manager Charley Manuel has preached all season, take it one game at a time. Though that is as boring as watching the Oakland Raiders offense, it has served the Phillies well. Tonight will be different, instead of just the game, in Game 5 it is one out at a time. If Philadelphia can grab the lead and secure 27 outs in the process, they will set off a wild celebration in the city where brotherly love will truly exist with a victory.

It’s been 28 years since the Philadelphia Phillies secured the club’s only World Series title with a decisive victory at home. One day after posting a wild late-night victory in its first World Series home game since 1993, Philadelphia powered its way to a 10-2 win over Tampa Bay in Game 4 on Sunday to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series.

After failing to come away with a championship in their previous two World Series appearances in 1983 and 1993, the Phillies are one win away from their first title since Tug McGraw closed out a 4-1 victory over Kansas City in Game 6 at Veterans Stadium on Oct. 21, 1980.

Of the 42 teams to take a 3-1 World Series lead, 36 have gone on to win it all. Philadelphia is 10-3 in playoff games this season and has won 18 of last 22 at home against teams with a winning record.

“It will be absolute bedlam,” Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard said of a possible title. “It will be one of the craziest places on Earth. It’s kind of scary to imagine.
“We just have to stay focused and hopefully come out with that ‘W.’”

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, looks to avoid a fourth straight postseason road loss as it faces elimination for the second straight series after beating Boston in seven games of the AL championship series. “It’s win or go home. It’s simple, and no one in here wants to go home and wonder what if,” Tampa Bay’s Cliff Floyd said.
Despite going 4-for-14 with runners in scoring position Sunday and 6-for-47 in the Series, Philadelphia has used the long ball in its last two contests to overcome that particular shortcoming. The Phils have been on remarkable run, like most champions end up being, having now won 37 of last 52 games.

Howard hit two home runs and Joe Blanton became the first pitcher since Oakland’s Ken Holtzman in 1974 to homer in the World Series as the Phillies improved to 6-0 at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday. Jayson Werth also homered for the Phillies, who have hit seven in the last two games at their homer-friendly park. Sunday’s run total matched that of their first three games of the Series.

Howard went 3-for-4 with five RBIs with a three-run homer in the fourth and a two-run shot in the eighth. The major league leader in homers and RBIs has three home runs in his last two contests after failing to homer in his previous 11 postseason games this year.

“To be able to have two home runs in the World Series is something you dream about as a teenager,” Howard said. “To help my team win, that’s a great feeling.”
Jimmy Rollins also had three hits with three runs scored Sunday, and is 5-for-9 in his last two games since going 0-for-10 to open the Series.

Monday’s contest features a rematch from Game 1 as Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels (18-10, 2.91) looks to continue his postseason dominance while again facing Scott Kazmir (13-9, 3.57).

Hamels, the MVP of the NL championship series, allowed two runs and five hits in seven innings of the Phillies’ 3-2 World Series-opening win at Tampa Bay on Wednesday to improve to 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA this postseason. The 24-year-old left-hander looks to join the Los Angeles Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez in 2002 and Arizona’s Randy Johnson in 2001 as the only pitchers to record five wins in the same postseason.

“Baseball is not going to allow you to be perfect. This is just a game of skill and luck, all mixed in one,” said Hamels, who has 27 strikeouts in 29 innings during the 2008 playoffs. “You just have to work with what you’ve got and go after it.”

Sportsbook.com has Philadelphia as -175 money line favorites with a total of Un7.5. Hamels and his teammates are 13-1 as home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.

Kazmir, meanwhile, yielded three runs and six hits while striking out and walking four batters apiece in Game 1. Though the left-hander pitched well in that contest, he fell to 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in four postseason starts. He also knows he has to be better in order to top Hamels. “He really has everything going right now. So it feels like you have to be on your `A’ game to beat that guy,” said Kazmir, who was drafted two spots ahead of Hamels in 2002. “So it feels like every pitch you throw is going to be a crucial pitch. You feel like you want to throw up zeros. And if you don’t, it’s going to be tough to get a win.” Kazmir and the Rays are 11-5 as an underdog of +125 to +175 the last two years.

It’s been tough for the Rays to win hitting .187 as a team while scoring three runs per contest. Just added to the Series roster in place of the injured Floyd, Eric Hinske homered Sunday for Tampa Bay, which has three against the Phillies after hitting 22 home runs in the division and championship series.

Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and Carlos Pena 0-for-3 while striking out twice Sunday as the Rays fanned 12 times and totaled five hits. No. 3 hitter Pena and cleanup man Longoria are 0-for-29 with 15 strikeouts in the Series.

It’s been suggested to possibly break up Longoria and Pena in the lineup, just to shake things up. Batting in the 3-4 spots in the lineup, they have created a lot of outs. Possibly move Longoria to third in the batting order and drop Pena to fifth or sixth, anything to loosen them up. It will be interesting to see how manager Joe Maddon plays it. “We just got to get back into it. We know what’s going on. We’re just not reacting,” Maddon said. “We have to not give them four outs in an inning, we have to have better at-bats.”

In retrospect, you could see Tampa Bay might be headed for a hitting slump. After hitting so many long balls in the postseason, they managed just 18 hits in final three games against Boston and have only 23 base-knocks in the World Series.

If the Rays win, the series will return to St. Petersburg for Game 6 on Wednesday. Tampa Bay is going to need A+ effort from Kazmir and have won five of his last six starts following a loss. The Rays will be up against on the road, being 4-12 versus left-hand starters.

Fox will have the coverage starting at about 8:20 Eastern.
StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia -131

MLB: Betting Baseballâ€™s Trendy Ideas
2008-08-06

Itâ€™s a Wednesday, a number of baseball teams are going to be on the move after today and the NFL Preseason is about to start in earnest. With bettorâ€™s attention finally starting to be pulled in many different directions, being able to grasp useful information quickly is important. Here is a look at todayâ€™s top trends and how they might directly impact the major league baseball action.

MINNESOTA is 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games this season.

The Twins have lost two in a row in Seattle of all places and being swept by the Mariners would be a sickly setback for a team with true division and wild card aspirations. Who would have ever guessed one baseballâ€™s worst offensive teams would hit a stretch where they would average 12 hits a contest over 11 games! Sportsbook.com has Minnesota as -120 favorites and has won these games by average of 3.7 runs per game.

TAMPA BAY is 23-2 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season.

One of the great stories of 2008 is how Tampa Bay has completely turned around this dormant franchise and has proven to be a serious contender in the American League. While some teams fail to wear the role of solid favorites well, the Rays have thrived in it and seek another rare win over Cleveland.

NY YANKEES are 6-18 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 10 or higher this season.

After winning eight in a row to pull back into contention in the AL East and wild card picture, the New York Yankees have given half of that streak back with 3-7 mark in last 10 games. Playing in baseballâ€™s equivalent of a slow-pitch power hitting team in a band-box (Texas), means runs are plentiful, which has not worked in the Yanks favor very often in 2008, with double digit totals.

SAN DIEGO is 3-17 (-17 Units) against the money line after a one run loss this season.

San Diego and losing has been redundant in 2008 and even they have not accepted losing close games well, being drilled by 2.3 runs per game after dropping a nail-biter.

PITTSBURGH is 1-18 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.

Few might realize Pittsburgh is actually third in the National League in scoring this season, still being in usual position of last place. Whatâ€™s the problem for the Pirates, maybe pitching has something to do with it. They have allowed exactly 163 more runs than the Chicago Cubs and free-swinging teams like Arizona have been especially bothersome on the road.

DETROIT is 7-23 (-18.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.

Now on a five game losing streak, itâ€™s becoming abundantly clear this Detroit club is going nowhere this year. As this angle shows, despite a bevy of sluggers, good pitching does stop good hitting.

FLORIDA is 16-2 OVER in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season.

The Marlins are much like the humidity in the Sunshine State, they score runs, give up runs and make opposing teams and fans sweat. Just two games behind todayâ€™s foe Philadelphia, the Marlins are also 19-4 OVER as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season and are baseballâ€™s best bet to play OVER.

TORONTO is 18-2 UNDER after three straight games with no home runs over the last two seasons.

Nobody will ever accuse this Toronto team of being the 1927 Yankees, what the heck, any episode of TMZ.com on television is more offensive than the Blue Jays. The team with the fewest home runs in the American League is a 90 percent sure bet in this circumstance.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX are 8-0 (+10 Units) against the run line at home after a game where they had six or more extra base hits this season.

The White Sox got the miracle they needed to cling to one game lead over Minnesota in the AL Central, scoring four runs in the bottom of the 14th inning to overcome two-run deficit against Detroit. The Pale Hose banged out 16 hits, including seven of the extra base variety. Chicago has gone on in next outing to win by almost four runs a game (3.9).

MLB: Playing Against teams on last road game
2008-06-25

Going through various forums a while back, I noticed someone had mentioned road teams playing the last game of a road trip were losing at a steady rate. I decided to make a note of this and do the research to back up this individual’s claim. Take a look at what I found then wager on it as Sportsbook.com

In theory, the basic point would be road teams might be anxious to get home after a road trip and might not play their best in final encounter, much to the dismay of starting pitcher. If that assumption is somewhat accurate, certain parameters had to established, to determine what a road trip actually is.

A three-game series in another city would hardly be taxing for any MLB club, thus those short jaunts are not included. The major league schedule-maker had a number of teams playing two games in two cities back-to-back, thou somewhat more strenuous, not overbearing. The final conclusion was every team had to visit two different towns, with a minimum of five games played as an out-of-towner.

The person making the assessment was right on the nose, leading one to wonder how much cash this person is bring in following this simple procedure. Betting Against road teams in the final game of a road trip has produced a 90-52 record, 64.4 winning percentage and yielded +31.15 units of profit in 2008. Pretty amazing numbers that even the President of Sprint would have to agree. (Using language from his TV commercial)

Not unexpectedly, underdogs account for 73.2 percent of all games played (104), since these are the road teams and would be +120 to +125 in most even pitching matchups. In this scenario, dogs have only won 39 times and lost -14.1 units. Favorites have done even worse in 38 contests played, chalking up only 13 victories and losing -17.25 units. Depending on how a series has played out, the home underdog could also have the additional incentive of attempting to win the series, while the visiting team’s players are unfocused thinking about sleeping in own bed and being in more familiar surroundings. Three teams in particular were exposed as real losers in getaway games.

L.A. Dodgers 1-5 -3.40 units

St. Louis 0-4 -4.05 units

Baltimore 0-5 -5.00 units

While most clubs were not as bad as these three, most had losing records or were around .500. A couple of teams have actually had success to close road trips and went home happy more often than not. Arizona is 3-1 (+2.80 units) before heading back to the desert heat and Toronto returned back to Canada with a smile, posting 4-1 mark, amassing +3.10 units.

With a number of road trips concluding this upcoming Sunday, be prepared to take advantage of this superior method of making money on betting baseball this weekend and hopefully the rest of the season.